The Copper Connection

I write, waiting for the Asian silver markets to open to see if the silver excursion will continue or if it pauses for a bit of consolidation (And it is consolidation as of noon Monday). The consensus seems to be that a new base has been put in at around 60-65 US per ounce. Maybe. Silver is not known as the heartbreak metal for nothing.

One way to hedge a bet on silver is to buy shares in companies with a different primary focus. The fact is only 30% of the world’s silver production is from primary silver mines, the rest comes as a byproduct of mining other metals such as lead, zinc and copper. While the spotlight is on silver, copper is very near its all-time highs with demand rising while older mines become depleted. The silver moonshot may fizzle, but the industrial demand for copper seems inexhaustible.

Before it was Hercules Metals, (BIG.V) was Hercules Silver. It changed names when it appeared to be hitting a copper porphyry at Mt. Cuddy in Idaho. But the rocks don’t change and BIG is sitting on a suture of the Izee and Olds Ferry terranes characterized by Bayhorse rhyolite. Yes, the same rhyolite found up the Snake River at the Bayhorse Silver (BHS.V) mine. In fact, Mt. Cuddy has several old silver mines.

Unlike Bayhorse Silver, BIG does not have a silver mine, yet. But as it explores for copper and expands its potential copper resource, BIG is encountering silver-lead-zinc mineralization relatively close to the surface.

With the silver price where it is, it may make sense for Hercules to build a silver mine while it continues to track down its copper deposit.

Canadian Critical Minerals (CCMI.V) already has its copper deposit, a mine and a mill. Over the last 18 months, it used an ore sorter, rented from Bayhorse Silver, to process its stock piled run of mine material and then ship the sorted material off to the mill at New Afton. The sorted material graded between 1.6% and 3% copper and contained around 20 gpt silver (as well as a little gold). Just a little less than an ounce per ton. While you would not develop a mine for that grade it is a very attractive byproduct.

CCMI is in the middle of permitting its mine and mill and has been something of a disappointment to investors, hugging $0.03-0.04 for a market cap of less than 12 million. Realistically, a larger mining company would not have to have very deep pockets to buy out unhappy shareholders. A $0.10 bid would certainly get my shares.

A much more interesting copper permitting story is US Copper (USCU.V). Its Moonlight Superior project in north eastern California has a 2,533,771,000 pound indicated copper resource and 21,692,531 troy ounce indicated silver resource.

US Copper recently reported an after-tax NPV of US$1.075 billion in a PEA prepared by Global Resource Engineering Ltd with a life of mine production of 1.8 billion pounds of copper (See news release dated Jan 6, 2025).

Critically, these numbers are based on a copper price of $4.15/lb and a silver price of $27.40. Copper hit $5.76 on December 26 and silver hit $84 before falling back to $72. Some very knowledgeable people see both metals rising significantly in 2026. The PEA’s projected life of mine 12 million ounce silver production is valued at $330,000,000 in the PEA, however, if you take $65 as a more realistic number, the silver alone is worth $780,000,000.

USCU’s CEO Steve Dunn is not shy about the company’s determination to find a joint venture partner to help navigate the California permitting process and develop the mine. However, that process may have been significantly streamlined due to the Trump administration prioritising copper and silver as critical strategic minerals.

Finding the right partner is likely a lot easier with metals prices hitting all-time highs. There are simply not that many advanced copper projects in the US and very few with a market cap of less than 25 million. US Copper has gone up a little in the past few weeks nearly reaching the level last seen when the market believed Trump was going to tariff copper. Trump exempted raw copper and the price of copper and US Copper shares dropped. Copper’s current run seems to be an organic function of the lack of supply and increased demand. It should get a nice upward kick once the market realizes just how much copper is worth and how much silver has gone up.

For investors, having exposure to silver while also enjoying the ride on copper might be just the ticket. Silver is the heartbreak metal, copper is the Steady Eddy: not all that sexy but deeply reliable. Well worth a look.

(Disclaimer: I hold shares in Bayhorse, Hercules, Canadian Critical and US Copper. I may sell at any time. This is not investment advice. Do your own due diligence. Call the CEO.)