Kestrel gaining altitude
Options being exercised would give the company some money to work with, which given their track record of conducting good work and adding value for cheap would be a positive outcome and make up for any potential downside from dilution. As for large shareholders trying to liquidate, I for one am in it to win it and haven't sold a share in an awful long time. Can't speak to what other large holders have planned but I would assume they understand the story well enough to know that selling before assays are in may be a mistake given the propensity for QCM to spit out good numbers from drill programs and the project is currently undergoing the largest ever drill program during Kestrel's tenure. Anyway, just my opinion, everyone should do their own due diligence and good luck to all!
Berni Kreft knows what he is talking about. After all, his prospecting outfit, Kreftco sold Kestrel (KGC.V) the QCM ground. But it is relatively rare for a large shareholder, much less the property vendor, to actually comment in public about a company. But that’s Bernie for you.
Kestrel’s QCM ground is located in the Manson-Germansen placer gold district in the Omineca region of the Northern Interior of British Columbia. The Omineca gold rush of the 1860s and 70s extracted thousands of ounces of gold from placer workings. As wily prospectors like Kreft know, that placer gold had to come from somewhere in the placer creeks’ watersheds.
Kestrel itself has shown some signs of life: last week it went from $0.04 to 0.075 trading over 1.3 million shares on the Venture. As its average volume is 65,000 shares was “something up”?
There are wonderful, almost certainly apocryphal, tales of “drillers’ money” (similar to “stable money” at the horseraces) and “lab leaks” and close relatives of management using “inside information” to take positions in little exploration companies in anticipation of big, positive, news. “There’s a bar in Val d’Or where a fortune can be made if you eavesdrop in French.” The actual facts tend to be a lot more prosaic and much less illegal.
I’ve mentioned the calendar as a guide to investing. April 17, Kestrel put out a press release indicating that Centerra was planning a 3 million dollar drill program at QCM and that Centerra anticipated that the program would begin at the end of May. If you go back to February 2025 you’ll find a press release detailing the encouraging results from Centerra’s first drill program. In that release the maximum depth of the drill holes is put at 164 meters with most bottoming above 150 meters. Relatively short holes. Knowing that the holes are short and making a couple of assumptions, a hole finished every two weeks per drill is not likely to be far wrong. Unfortunately, I have not been able to find out how many drills are turning at QCM. What is disclosed is that 7,430 metres of drilling is planned which suggests more than one rig. (I have an email in to Pat Lynch, CEO, asking for that number. Update: Pat Lynch got back to me and wrote that Centerra was “collaring one hole at a time” which suggests a single rig. Very impressed with Pat’s response time. “Same day” is the mark of a CEO on top of his company.)
At a guess, there will have been three holes completed per drill. Of course, getting the core is just step one: it has to be split, logged and sent for assay. The “sent for assay” piece is always a bit of a guessing game. How long the lab takes depends on volume and where a company is “in line”. As a large company, Centerra might have some priority. Centerra drills a lot of core and it would be a valuable contract for a lab to have. But even with a bit of “pull” the labwork takes time.
The other thing to bear in mind is that Kestrel’s QCM property is just one of several greenfield exploration projects on Centerra’s books. While junior resource companies are always in a hurry to get results posted, large companies have a much longer time horizon. It is the trade-off a junior makes when it joint ventures with a much larger company. Of course, Centerra brings much more than just money to the table. It has exploration geology depth and experience with greenfield exploration.
Kestrel has the benefit of a large, experienced joint venture partner and a Kreftco prospected property. Bernie is now just a shareholder, albeit a big one and as quoted above, he’s “in it to win it and haven't sold a share in an awful long time”.
Good enough for me.
(Update: Release out today, July 9. 9 holes completed for 2640 meters with interesting rock encountered in each hole. No assay results yet but they should come fairly soon. For those keeping score at home, that averages to around 300 meters a hole which is deeper than last year. They would not keep drilling deeper if there was not interesting core coming up. My earlier estimate was way off the mark.)
(Disclaimer: I hold shares in Kestrel Gold which I may sell or buy at anytime. This is not investment advice. Do your own due diligence. Call the CEO.)